While the overall census division is expected to grow over the long term, the increase is gradual and remains modest compared to provincial trends. The forecast data, prepared by metroeconomics using methodology aligned with Ontario Ministry of Finance projections, shows Sarnia increasing from 74,779 residents in 2021 to 79,676 by 2026. The change represents an […]
While the overall census division is expected to grow over the long term, the increase is gradual and remains modest compared to provincial trends.
The forecast data, prepared by metroeconomics using methodology aligned with Ontario Ministry of Finance projections, shows Sarnia increasing from 74,779 residents in 2021 to 79,676 by 2026. The change represents an increase of just under 5,000 people over five years.
The report also notes that between 2001 and 2021, Lambton County as a whole grew by only 1,847 residents. More recent growth has been stronger, with an increase of 6,413 people between 2021 and 2023, but the projections do not identify a major acceleration in the years ahead.
Sarnia remains the largest municipality in Lambton County, representing more than half of the county’s total population. However, its projected growth rate remains lower than some surrounding communities, including Lambton Shores, Plympton-Wyoming, and St. Clair Township, all of which show stronger future increases in both population and dwellings.
Under the model, Lambton County's population is forecast to rise from 130,993 in 2021 to 140,517 in 2026. The report notes that Lambton County’s future planning must be tied to these modest projections, as required under the 2024 Provincial Planning Statement. It also states that the allocations are a starting point for further consultation and may be adjusted as more local feedback is collected.
Although Sarnia is expected to grow slowly through 2051, the projections indicate no significant surge in population over the next several years. The city’s ability to accommodate growth, its employment base, and its demographic profile remain key factors in the long-term outlook.
The full dataset includes modelling for all 11 Lambton County municipalities and the three First Nations communities included in Census Division 3538.
