The Maple Leafs host the New York Islanders at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto this Tuesday, March 17, at 07:00 p.m. ET in Toronto.
The Maple Leafs host the New York Islanders at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto this Tuesday, March 17, at 07:00 p.m. ET in Toronto. The American team arrives in the stronger position, sitting at 38-24-5 and third in the Metropolitan Division, while Toronto is 29-27-12 this season, eighth and last in the Atlantic. The Islanders also lead the head-to-head this season 1-0 after their 4-3 overtime win on January 3.
This is not the typical Leafs home game where Toronto might deserve favourite status. The Islanders bring the better defensive profile into the matchup, and they have been the steadier team lately. Tonybet Casino and sportsbetting website shows this, giving a slight edge in favour of the Isles. However, before placing your wager on this match, there are many more variables we should consider.
New York’s recent form is the main reason this matchup feels different from the usual Leafs-at-home narrative. The Islanders beat Calgary 3-2 on Saturday after also beating Los Angeles 3-2 and St. Louis 4-3 in overtime. This means the Isles have won four of their last five matches. Patrick Roy’s team is enjoying a much sturdier short-term trend than Toronto.
The local team is still trying to stop the bleeding. The Leafs lost 3-2 in a shootout to the Sabres on Saturday and have dropped eight of their last 10 games. They have shown some offensive life even during these last few matches, but their defense has been disappointing. In this stretch, they’ve received 3.7 goals each game.
However, the recent head-to-head supports the idea of a competitive matchup rather than a one-sided game:
Even this season, when the Maple Leafs have been struggling to get the needed form to be competitive in the regular season, the matches have been close, so this shouldn’t be an easy game for the Islanders.
The biggest personal story is Toronto’s loss of Auston Matthews, who was ruled out for the rest of the season after suffering a grade 3 MCL tear and quad contusion in his left leg. That changes the entire feel of the Leafs attack and makes Toronto far less dangerous on the power play. Chris Tanev is the other relevant player that will miss the game vs Islanders.
For New York, Alexander Romanov, Semyon Varlamov, Kyle Palmieri and Pierre Engvall are the most notable absences. Those aren’t insignificant by any means; however, they haven't derailed the Islanders’ season the way Matthews’ injury has changed Toronto.
While attacking, Toronto Maple Leafs lineup should be close to this:
And the most probable defence pairings should look like this:
According to the last few matches and the players available, the Islanders forwards lineup should look like this:
For the goalkeepers, the most probable Islanders goalie for this game is Ilya Sorokin. There are more doubts about Maple Leafs goalies, however: Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz are both available, but the former has played the last few games.
One of the most important aspects of this game will be how the Islanders' pressure works against Toronto’s defensive numbers. Toronto is allowing 32.1 shots per game, one of the clearest warning signs on the matchup page. The Isles team has been more controlled lately, and that opens the door for a heavy-volume road performance, especially if the Islanders establish zone time early.
Another relevant factor for this duel is that Toronto is still able to score without Matthews. William Nylander is leading the team with 63 points. If Toronto wins this game it would be thanks to their powerful attack.
Ilya Sorokin is one of the best goalkeepers in the league and it’s showing this season. He’s at 2.52 GAA and .913 save percentage this year, compared with 3.08/.906 for Woll and 3.40/.890 for Stolarz, the Maple Leafs goalies.
No one could deny the Islanders are the favourites for this match. The better recent form, the better defensive numbers, and the superior standings position should be enough to convince anyone. However, Matthews’ absence is the nail in the coffin. Toronto’s home ice keeps this from feeling like a runaway pick, but New York is clearly the more complete team.
The safest angle is probably not a blind full-game over. Toronto games have leaned high this season, but New York’s profile is more reliable on defense. Knowing the Maple Leafs have allowed 3.7 goals per game in the last 10, while scoring 2.5 goals, an Islanders team-total over at a modest level could be the most interesting market here.
For a lower-stake with higher-price angle, Simon Holmstrom as an anytime goal scorer is an interesting option. He just scored twice against Calgary and Toronto’s defensive numbers make secondary scoring props worth a look.
Major sportsbooks are expected to give a slight edge to the New York Islanders because of their stronger overall form and Toronto’s current injury concerns. Even so, the odds should also reflect how difficult it can be to play on the road against the Maple Leafs at Scotiabank Arena. That balance could create value in markets such as the moneyline, puck line, total goals, team totals, or selected player props.
To find the best available price, bettors should compare updated odds across specialized sports betting platforms before the game begins, particularly once the starting goaltenders are officially confirmed.
